ING sees a gradual rotation toward defensive currency positions, with the Swiss franc, Japanese yen and sterling attracting greater attention. The bank does not, however, view that shift as an automatic signal of a broad dollar decline.
In its 22 October 2026 currency report, Chris Turner, ING’s Global Head of Markets, connected the view to growing concern about economic growth and reduced concentration in US technology shares. This is the bank’s market assessment rather than a confirmed forecast outcome.
Why positioning may be changing
ING argues that expensive energy is no longer being interpreted solely as a reason for interest rates to stay higher. It may also increase concern about weaker growth. If that concern deepens, defensive currencies could outperform currencies more closely linked to commodities and the economic cycle.
Still, resilient expectations for short-term US interest rates provide support for the dollar, even as some investors reduce exposure to US assets.
The dollar and euro outlook
The bank favours consolidation rather than a broad correction in the dollar index, while allowing for some further softening. Its one-month euro forecast is $1.13, alongside caution about chasing a rapid euro rally.
What traders should watch
In ING’s framework, the key test is whether renewed technology weakness changes short-term US rate expectations. A more dovish repricing could create room for a wider dollar correction, while persistent tightening expectations could restrain it.
MARKET NEWS view: Diversifying currency exposure does not imply that all defensive currencies will move together. Interest-rate differences and country-specific risks remain central. Follow our economic coverage for changes in risk appetite and foreign-exchange positioning.
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