US Treasury Yields Fall Below 5%; ING Warns the Rally May Reverse

US Treasuries attracted safe-haven demand during the October 22, 2026 session as renewed concerns about the returns on artificial-intelligence spending weighed on technology shares. The 10-year yield fell below 5% during trading; this description does not represent an official closing yield.

ING sees a potential reversal

In its October 22 report, ING argued that risk aversion had driven the move, while inflation and the fiscal deficit could eventually push the yield back above 5%. The bank did not specify when that reversal might occur. This is a conditional research view, rather than a guaranteed rate path.

ING also reported that France’s spread over German government bonds reached approximately 177 basis points during trading. The contrast highlights how investors can seek safety in one sovereign bond market while demanding a larger risk premium in another.

Labour-market context

US initial jobless claims fell to 194,000 in the week ended October 17, down 6,000 from the previous week’s revised figure. The reading alone does not determine the next Federal Reserve decision.

What investors are watching

Company spending guidance, cash flow and incoming inflation and employment data remain important. Continued equity weakness could support defensive bond demand, while renewed price pressure could limit the decline in yields.

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