ING expects the Federal Reserve to hold interest rates steady in October before raising them by a quarter percentage point in December. Its 23 October 2026 report puts inflation and financing conditions at the centre of the outlook.
The forecast and the official decision
The Fed’s calendar schedules the next meeting for 27–28 October, followed by 8–9 December. On 16 September, the Fed raised its target range to 3.75%–4.00% and reaffirmed its commitment to price stability.
ING’s team, including James Knightley, Padhraic Garvey and Chris Turner, expects a pause to allow further assessment of incoming data. Its December scenario takes the range to 4.00%–4.25%. This is a research forecast, subject to change, rather than an announced decision.
Why the distinction matters
ING sees persistent energy pressures as a risk to the rate outlook. MARKET NEWS analysis: an October hold, if delivered, would not by itself establish that tightening is over. The subsequent path matters for corporate financing costs, bond valuations and the dollar.
What investors should watch
Focus turns to the 28 October statement and press conference, followed by inflation and employment releases before December. Market reactions will depend partly on how the decision changes expectations for later policy.
The image illustrates US monetary policy.
Read our related US Treasury yield coverage.
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